Predicted ecological consequences of wave energy extraction and climate-related changes in wave exposure on rocky shore communities

Wave energy has the potential to contribute in the transition to decarbonized electricity generation. Extracting wave energy might be expected to have ecological impacts on rocky shore intertidal communities where exposure is one of the most important factors determining species structure and composition. With global climatic change, coastal exposure is predicted to increase with greater significant wave height. The wave-exposed west coast of Orkney, Scotland, UK, is the site of pre-commercial wave device testing. Surveys of 39 rocky shore sites along this coast identified key species and abundances, and quantified exposure-modifying topographic variables. A spectral wave model was constructed to compare baseline, wave extraction, climate change, and combined scenarios. Generalized additive modelling was used to describe the relationship between species, topography, and exposure. Results show that individual species differentially respond to exposure changes with ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ at site level. Overall, community responses are expected to be far greater following predicted climatic change than to industrial-scale wave energy extraction, depending on spatial scale. In combination, energy extraction may reduce the effects of climate-change-related increases in wave exposure of rocky shores. Predicting how location-specific biotic assemblages respond to changes in wave energy as a result of long-term forcing agents provides a valuable marine resource management tool.