An assessment model for linking changes in pelagic habitat state to impacts on human wellbeing

Plankton monitoring datasets help inform indicators for marine biodiversity assessments under the European Union Marine Strategy Framework Directive and United Kingdom Marine Strategy. These indicators are used to assess long-term changes in the state of the pelagic habitats of the Northeast Atlantic which then guide policy formation and implementation to achieve Good Environmental Status. Across all ecosystems, environmental change has the potential to impact upon human wellbeing by changing the quantity and quality of ecosystem services. Here, we develop a socio-ecological assessment model that can describe how variations in pelagic habitat state, evidenced by plankton indicators, can impact human wellbeing. We show that pelagic habitat state can influence human wellbeing through changing the availability of ‘goods and benefits’ (as made available via ecosystem services), such as the contribution of phytoplankton to climate regulation, but also through mediating the risks of ‘ecosystem hazards’. Importantly, changes to pelagic ecosystem state will also drive changes to ecosystem services and ecosystem hazards in the wider marine food web, supported by ecosystem processes associated with plankton, such as the rate of primary production. Applying the proposed assessment model to plankton monitoring data highlights the potential for a greater depth of understanding of the human wellbeing impacts driven by state changes in pelagic habitats. Alongside making best use of the available plankton monitoring data, quantifying the human wellbeing impacts arising from changes to pelagic habitat state increases the evidence base for decision makers.