MCCIP Science Review 2020: Effects of climate change on the Atlantic Heat Conveyor relevant to the UK

Gerard McCarthy; Laura Jackson; Stuart Cunningham; N.P. Holliday; D.A. Smeed; David Stevens

doi:10.14465/2020.arc09.ahc

MCCIP Science Review 2020: Effects of climate change on the Atlantic Heat Conveyor relevant to the UK

Gerard McCarthy
, Laura Jackson
, Stuart Cunningham
, N.P. Holliday
, D.A. Smeed
, David Stevens

The Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute

Résultats de recherche

Résumé

The Atlantic Heat Conveyor or Atlantic Meridional Overturning
Circulation (AMOC) is a major factor in maintenance of the climate
and marine environment of the UK.
• The AMOC is predicted to weaken in the coming century due to
climate change.
• The AMOC is currently in a weakened state and the subpolar North
Atlantic appears to be entering a cool (and fresh) state. However,
record cold temperatures in 2015 were found to be driven largely by
air–sea heat loss rather than reduced AMOC.
• Large biogeographical and climatic shifts are expected in response to
this shift to cooler conditions.
• There is little support for the idea that the AMOC will abruptly shut
down despite new ideas suggesting more plausible mechanisms
related to a shutdown.
• Skill in predicting climate on decadal timescales can be derived from
correct initialisation of AMOC in prediction systems hence increasing
the capacity to manage, mitigate, and adapt to AMOC related climate
changes.

langue originale	English
Editeur	Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership
Nombre de pages	18
Volume	2020
Les DOIs	https://doi.org/10.14465/2020.arc09.ahc
état	Published - 15 janv. 2020

Série de publications

Nom	MCCIP Science Review

SDG des Nations Unies

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10.14465/2020.arc09.ahcLicense:

Contient cette citation

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title = "MCCIP Science Review 2020: Effects of climate change on the Atlantic Heat Conveyor relevant to the UK",

abstract = " The Atlantic Heat Conveyor or Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major factor in maintenance of the climate and marine environment of the UK. • The AMOC is predicted to weaken in the coming century due to climate change. • The AMOC is currently in a weakened state and the subpolar North Atlantic appears to be entering a cool (and fresh) state. However, record cold temperatures in 2015 were found to be driven largely by air–sea heat loss rather than reduced AMOC. • Large biogeographical and climatic shifts are expected in response to this shift to cooler conditions. • There is little support for the idea that the AMOC will abruptly shut down despite new ideas suggesting more plausible mechanisms related to a shutdown. • Skill in predicting climate on decadal timescales can be derived from correct initialisation of AMOC in prediction systems hence increasing the capacity to manage, mitigate, and adapt to AMOC related climate changes.",

author = "Gerard McCarthy and Laura Jackson and Stuart Cunningham and N.P. Holliday and D.A. Smeed and David Stevens",

note = "From MCCIP 'The reports are indeed openly available, and are intended to be widely used. We would only ask that where any material is used, the given citation is used for the science review. Where we have adapted figures etc…original sources should be used' ",

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month = jan,

day = "15",

doi = "10.14465/2020.arc09.ahc",

language = "English",

volume = "2020",

series = "MCCIP Science Review",

publisher = "Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership",

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AU - McCarthy, Gerard

AU - Jackson, Laura

AU - Cunningham, Stuart

AU - Holliday, N.P.

AU - Smeed, D.A.

AU - Stevens, David

N1 - From MCCIP 'The reports are indeed openly available, and are intended to be widely used. We would only ask that where any material is used, the given citation is used for the science review. Where we have adapted figures etc…original sources should be used'

PY - 2020/1/15

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N2 - The Atlantic Heat Conveyor or Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major factor in maintenance of the climate and marine environment of the UK. • The AMOC is predicted to weaken in the coming century due to climate change. • The AMOC is currently in a weakened state and the subpolar North Atlantic appears to be entering a cool (and fresh) state. However, record cold temperatures in 2015 were found to be driven largely by air–sea heat loss rather than reduced AMOC. • Large biogeographical and climatic shifts are expected in response to this shift to cooler conditions. • There is little support for the idea that the AMOC will abruptly shut down despite new ideas suggesting more plausible mechanisms related to a shutdown. • Skill in predicting climate on decadal timescales can be derived from correct initialisation of AMOC in prediction systems hence increasing the capacity to manage, mitigate, and adapt to AMOC related climate changes.

AB - The Atlantic Heat Conveyor or Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major factor in maintenance of the climate and marine environment of the UK. • The AMOC is predicted to weaken in the coming century due to climate change. • The AMOC is currently in a weakened state and the subpolar North Atlantic appears to be entering a cool (and fresh) state. However, record cold temperatures in 2015 were found to be driven largely by air–sea heat loss rather than reduced AMOC. • Large biogeographical and climatic shifts are expected in response to this shift to cooler conditions. • There is little support for the idea that the AMOC will abruptly shut down despite new ideas suggesting more plausible mechanisms related to a shutdown. • Skill in predicting climate on decadal timescales can be derived from correct initialisation of AMOC in prediction systems hence increasing the capacity to manage, mitigate, and adapt to AMOC related climate changes.

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DO - 10.14465/2020.arc09.ahc

M3 - Other report

VL - 2020

T3 - MCCIP Science Review

BT - MCCIP Science Review 2020

PB - Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership

ER -

MCCIP Science Review 2020: Effects of climate change on the Atlantic Heat Conveyor relevant to the UK

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