Strengthening confidence in climate change impact science

Mary I. O'Connor; Johnna M. Holding; Carrie V. Kappel; Carlos M. Duarte; Keith Brander; Christopher J. Brown; John F. Bruno; Lauren Buckley; Michael T. Burrows; Benjamin S. Halpern; Wolfgang Kiessling; Pippa Moore; John M. Pandolfi; Camille Parmesan; Elvira S. Poloczanska; David S. Schoeman; William J. Sydeman; Anthony J. Richardson

doi:10.1111/geb.12218

Strengthening confidence in climate change impact science

Mary I. O'Connor
, Johnna M. Holding
, Carrie V. Kappel
, Carlos M. Duarte
, Keith Brander
, Christopher J. Brown
, John F. Bruno
, Lauren Buckley
, Michael T. Burrows
, Benjamin S. Halpern
, Wolfgang Kiessling
, Pippa Moore
, John M. Pandolfi
, Camille Parmesan
, Elvira S. Poloczanska
, David S. Schoeman
, William J. Sydeman
, Anthony J. Richardson

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

41 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

To assess confidence in conclusions about climate-driven biological change through time, and identify approaches for strengthening confidence scientific conclusions about ecological impacts of climate change. We outlined a framework for strengthening confidence in inferences drawn from biological climate impact studies through the systematic integration of prior expectations, long-term data and quantitative statistical procedures. We then developed a numerical confidence index (Cindex) and used it to evaluate current practices in 208 studies of marine climate impacts comprising 1735 biological time series.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	64-76
Number of pages	12
Journal	GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY
Volume	24
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12218
Publication status	Published - 1 Jan 2015

Keywords

Abundance
attribution
climate change
distribution
hypothesis
impacts
marine
phenology
scientific method
time series

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1111/geb.12218

Michael Burrows
- michael.burrowssams.acuk
- SAMS UHI - Marine Ecologist
- Energy Innovation Team
Person: Academic - Research and Teaching or Research only

Cite this

O'Connor, M. I., Holding, J. M., Kappel, C. V., Duarte, C. M., Brander, K., Brown, C. J., Bruno, J. F., Buckley, L., Burrows, M. T., Halpern, B. S., Kiessling, W., Moore, P., Pandolfi, J. M., Parmesan, C., Poloczanska, E. S., Schoeman, D. S., Sydeman, W. J., & Richardson, A. J. (2015). Strengthening confidence in climate change impact science. GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY, 24(1), 64-76. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12218

@article{821ca0c4dd9e49b393ee6c929296baa3,

title = "Strengthening confidence in climate change impact science",

abstract = "To assess confidence in conclusions about climate-driven biological change through time, and identify approaches for strengthening confidence scientific conclusions about ecological impacts of climate change. We outlined a framework for strengthening confidence in inferences drawn from biological climate impact studies through the systematic integration of prior expectations, long-term data and quantitative statistical procedures. We then developed a numerical confidence index (Cindex) and used it to evaluate current practices in 208 studies of marine climate impacts comprising 1735 biological time series.",

keywords = "Abundance, attribution, climate change, distribution, hypothesis, impacts, marine, phenology, scientific method, time series",

author = "O'Connor, \{Mary I.\} and Holding, \{Johnna M.\} and Kappel, \{Carrie V.\} and Duarte, \{Carlos M.\} and Keith Brander and Brown, \{Christopher J.\} and Bruno, \{John F.\} and Lauren Buckley and Burrows, \{Michael T.\} and Halpern, \{Benjamin S.\} and Wolfgang Kiessling and Pippa Moore and Pandolfi, \{John M.\} and Camille Parmesan and Poloczanska, \{Elvira S.\} and Schoeman, \{David S.\} and Sydeman, \{William J.\} and Richardson, \{Anthony J.\}",

year = "2015",

month = jan,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1111/geb.12218",

language = "English",

volume = "24",

pages = "64--76",

journal = "GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY",

issn = "1466-822X",

publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd",

number = "1",

}

O'Connor, MI, Holding, JM, Kappel, CV, Duarte, CM, Brander, K, Brown, CJ, Bruno, JF, Buckley, L, Burrows, MT, Halpern, BS, Kiessling, W, Moore, P, Pandolfi, JM, Parmesan, C, Poloczanska, ES, Schoeman, DS, Sydeman, WJ & Richardson, AJ 2015, 'Strengthening confidence in climate change impact science', GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY, vol. 24, no. 1, pp. 64-76. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12218

TY - JOUR

T1 - Strengthening confidence in climate change impact science

AU - O'Connor, Mary I.

AU - Holding, Johnna M.

AU - Kappel, Carrie V.

AU - Duarte, Carlos M.

AU - Brander, Keith

AU - Brown, Christopher J.

AU - Bruno, John F.

AU - Buckley, Lauren

AU - Burrows, Michael T.

AU - Halpern, Benjamin S.

AU - Kiessling, Wolfgang

AU - Moore, Pippa

AU - Pandolfi, John M.

AU - Parmesan, Camille

AU - Poloczanska, Elvira S.

AU - Schoeman, David S.

AU - Sydeman, William J.

AU - Richardson, Anthony J.

PY - 2015/1/1

Y1 - 2015/1/1

N2 - To assess confidence in conclusions about climate-driven biological change through time, and identify approaches for strengthening confidence scientific conclusions about ecological impacts of climate change. We outlined a framework for strengthening confidence in inferences drawn from biological climate impact studies through the systematic integration of prior expectations, long-term data and quantitative statistical procedures. We then developed a numerical confidence index (Cindex) and used it to evaluate current practices in 208 studies of marine climate impacts comprising 1735 biological time series.

AB - To assess confidence in conclusions about climate-driven biological change through time, and identify approaches for strengthening confidence scientific conclusions about ecological impacts of climate change. We outlined a framework for strengthening confidence in inferences drawn from biological climate impact studies through the systematic integration of prior expectations, long-term data and quantitative statistical procedures. We then developed a numerical confidence index (Cindex) and used it to evaluate current practices in 208 studies of marine climate impacts comprising 1735 biological time series.

KW - Abundance

KW - attribution

KW - climate change

KW - distribution

KW - hypothesis

KW - impacts

KW - marine

KW - phenology

KW - scientific method

KW - time series

U2 - 10.1111/geb.12218

DO - 10.1111/geb.12218

M3 - Article

SN - 1466-822X

VL - 24

SP - 64

EP - 76

JO - GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

JF - GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

IS - 1

ER -

Strengthening confidence in climate change impact science

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Fingerprint

Profiles

Michael Burrows

Cite this