Strengthening confidence in climate change impact science

Mary I. O'Connor, Johnna M. Holding, Carrie V. Kappel, Carlos M. Duarte, Keith Brander, Christopher J. Brown, John F. Bruno, Lauren Buckley, Michael T. Burrows, Benjamin S. Halpern, Wolfgang Kiessling, Pippa Moore, John M. Pandolfi, Camille Parmesan, Elvira S. Poloczanska, David S. Schoeman, William J. Sydeman, Anthony J. Richardson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

21 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

To assess confidence in conclusions about climate-driven biological change through time, and identify approaches for strengthening confidence scientific conclusions about ecological impacts of climate change. We outlined a framework for strengthening confidence in inferences drawn from biological climate impact studies through the systematic integration of prior expectations, long-term data and quantitative statistical procedures. We then developed a numerical confidence index (Cindex) and used it to evaluate current practices in 208 studies of marine climate impacts comprising 1735 biological time series.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)64-76
Number of pages12
JournalGLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY
Volume24
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2015

Keywords

  • Abundance
  • attribution
  • climate change
  • distribution
  • hypothesis
  • impacts
  • marine
  • phenology
  • scientific method
  • time series

Cite this

O'Connor, M. I., Holding, J. M., Kappel, C. V., Duarte, C. M., Brander, K., Brown, C. J., Bruno, J. F., Buckley, L., Burrows, M. T., Halpern, B. S., Kiessling, W., Moore, P., Pandolfi, J. M., Parmesan, C., Poloczanska, E. S., Schoeman, D. S., Sydeman, W. J., & Richardson, A. J. (2015). Strengthening confidence in climate change impact science. GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY, 24(1), 64-76. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12218