Microsimulation Model for Evaluating the Cost-Effectiveness of Surveillance in BAP1 Pathogenic Variant Carriers

Sebastian Walpole, Nicholas K Hayward, Antonia L Pritchard, Peter A Johansson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

8 Citations (Scopus)


PURPOSE: Pathogenic BAP1 germline variants cause a tumor-predisposition syndrome (BAP1-TPDS) linked to uveal melanoma, mesothelioma, cutaneous melanoma, and renal cell carcinoma. Surveillance of carriers of pathogenic BAP1 variants provides an opportunity for early tumor detection; however, there are no evidence-based guidelines for management of BAP1-TPDS, nor health economic evaluation; this study aims to provide this evidence.

METHODS: We created a Markov microsimulation health state transition model of BAP1 germline carriers to predict if active surveillance for the four main tumors influences survival and improves associated economic costs with a time horizon of 100 years from the perspective of the healthcare system (N = 10,000). Model inputs were derived from data published by the BAP1 Interest Group Consortium and other studies. Management and healthcare costs were extracted from Australian costing schedules (final figures converted to US dollars [USD]), and outcomes compared for individuals receiving surveillance with those in a nonsurveillance arm. Robustness was evaluated on 10,000 iterations of a 100-sample random sampling of the model output.

RESULTS: On average, surveillance of BAP1 carriers increased survival by 4.9 years at an additional cost of $6,197 USD for the healthcare system including surveillance costs ($1,265 USD per life year gained). The nonsurveillance arm had more diagnosed late tumors (62.8% v 10.7%) and a higher rate of BAP1-related deaths (50.2% v 35.4%; a 29.5% increase). The model was cost-effective under all sensitivity analyses. Our secondary robustness analysis estimated that 99.86% of 100-sample iterations were cost-effective and 19.67% of these were cost-saving.

CONCLUSION: It is recommended that carriers of BAP1 germline variants are identified and undertake active surveillance, as this model suggests that this could improve survival and be cost-effective for the healthcare system.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)143-154
Number of pages12
JournalJCO clinical cancer informatics
Publication statusPublished - 30 Jan 2021


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