Extreme mismatch between phytoplankton and grazers during Arctic spring blooms and consequences for the pelagic food-web

Food-web structure determines the cycling pathways and fate of new production in marine ecosystems. Herbivorous zooplankton populations are usually seasonally coupled with pelagic primary producers. Synchrony of phytoplankton blooms with reproduction, recruitment and seasonal ascent of their main grazers ensures efficient transfer of organic carbon to higher trophic levels, including commercially harvested species, especially in high-latitude systems. Changes in light, nutrient, and sea-ice dynamics due to accelerating climate change in the Arctic, however, create large uncertainties in how these systems will function in the future. To address such knowledge gaps, we surveyed the pelagic ecosystem of the Barents Sea Polar Front in May of two consecutive years (2021 and 2022) to investigate the pelagic food-web from primary producers to planktivorous fish. In both years we observed unprecedentedly high phytoplankton chlorophyll a values in open as well as ice-covered waters, much of which was invisible to satellite remote sensing. We also measured very low densities of grazing zooplankton across a wide area and extending for at least one month. This extreme mismatch resulted in low feeding by capelin, and further suggests a high potential for vertical export of carbon to the benthos rather than efficient assimilation into the pelagic food web. As the Arctic continues to warm and is characterized by thinner and more mobile sea ice, we may expect higher variability in phytoplankton bloom phenology and more frequent mismatches with grazer life-histories. This could have significant impacts on ecosystem functioning by re-directing the flow of energy through the system towards seafloor rather than to the production of commercially valuable pelagic marine resources.